The numbers behind the farm business.
Aglyst breaks down margins, yield, capital returns, land economics, input costs, and policy — in the analyst's voice, for operators and the people who back them.
Why corn-belt margins are squeezing harder than the headline price suggests
Cash corn at $4.20 looks workable. But once you stack input inflation, cash rent, and interest carry on operating lines, the average Iowa row-crop operator is sitting on margins thinner than any season since 2015. Here's what the spreadsheet actually shows.
Also This Week
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Yield
The Midwest yield drag nobody's pricing in: subsoil moisture going into 2027
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CapEx ROI
Grain bin economics at $4 corn: when does on-farm storage stop paying back?
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Inputs
Why nitrogen prices may have already peaked — and what farmers should lock in
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Land
Iowa cash rents flat for the first time in six years. The cycle has turned.
Topics We Cover
All topics →Margins
Crop margins, livestock feeding margins, dairy IOFC, processor margins. Where the dollar actually lands.
Yield
Yield trends, yield gaps, regional analytics, weather-driven drag, technology lift.
CapEx ROI
Equipment, irrigation, grain storage, robotics, solar, drying. What pays back, what doesn't.
Land
Cash rent, land values, lease structures, regional land markets, transition economics.
Inputs
Fertilizer, seed, chemical, fuel, labor — and the cost structure underneath each.
Trade & Policy
Farm bill, tariffs, ethanol policy, crop insurance, subsidies — and the dollar impact per acre.
Operator Economics
Break-even per acre, per cow, per head. The single-page P&L for an ag operation.
Farm Finance
Working capital, operating loans, equipment financing, succession debt structures.
Processors & Trade
Ethanol margins, crush margins, packer margins, basis economics from the buyer's side.
Latest Analysis
Break-even corn for the 2027 crop in Iowa: $3.92 — and what each $0.10 means
The break-even math for next year's corn crop is tightening fast. Here's the per-acre stack and where the swing factors are.
Center-pivot irrigation in Nebraska: payback math at current corn prices
Energy costs, well depth, and corn-water response curves — when does a new pivot still earn its keep?
Dairy IOFC running 30% above 5-year average — but feed cost reversal looms
Income over feed cost is strong, but the underlying ratios suggest the window may not last past Q2.
Anhydrous ammonia at $700: what's driving the floor and where the ceiling sits
Natural gas, global trade flows, and US production capacity — the three variables that set N pricing.